US Dollar (USD) Price Outlook: Friday's US Inflation Data to Determine Next Move

The US Dollar will likely trade narrowly ahead of Friday’s US core PCE data, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, which will likely determine the next major move for the currency.

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DailyFX - Market News Martin Essex MSTA Topbanner

Japanese Yen remains on the front foot as wage growth bolsters BoJ rate hike expectations 8 December 2025

The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some dip-buying at the start of a new week and remains close to its highest level since November 14, touched against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday.

USD/CAD holds onto Friday’s losses around 1.3800, investors await Fed-BoC policy 8 December 2025

The USD/CAD pair trades weakly near its 11-week low around 1.3800 during the Asian trading session on Monday.

China’s Trade Balance: Surplus widens in November as Exports surge 8 December 2025

China's Trade Balance for November, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY792.57 billion, widening from the previous figure of CNY640.40 billion.

China Trade Balance USD came in at $111.68B, above expectations ($100.2B) in November 8 December 2025

China Trade Balance USD came in at $111.68B, above expectations ($100.2B) in November

China Exports (YoY) above expectations (3.8%) in November: Actual (5.9%) 8 December 2025

China Exports (YoY) above expectations (3.8%) in November: Actual (5.9%)

China Imports (YoY) came in at 1.9% below forecasts (2.8%) in November 8 December 2025

China Imports (YoY) came in at 1.9% below forecasts (2.8%) in November

China Trade Balance CNY rose from previous 640.4B to 792.57B in November 8 December 2025

China Trade Balance CNY rose from previous 640.4B to 792.57B in November

China Exports (YoY) CNY: 5.7% (November) vs -0.8% 8 December 2025

China Exports (YoY) CNY: 5.7% (November) vs -0.8%

China Exports (YoY) came in at 5.7%, above forecasts (3.8%) in November 8 December 2025

China Exports (YoY) came in at 5.7%, above forecasts (3.8%) in November

ECB’s Rehn: Latest forecast suggests inflation will remain slightly below 2% over the horizon 8 December 2025

In an interview with the Italian financial magazine Milano Finanza on Saturday, European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn said that "our latest forecast suggests inflation will remain slightly below 2% over the horizon."

WTI trades with mild negative bias below $60.00; downside potential seems limited 8 December 2025

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on a three-week-old uptrend and oscillate in a narrow band during the Asian session on Monday.

EUR/USD posts modest gains near 1.1650 amid Fed rate cut bets 8 December 2025

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1645 during the early Asian session on Monday. The prospect of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at its December meeting on Wednesday could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).

AUD/USD holds steady below 0.6650, highest since September ahead of China's trade data 8 December 2025

The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and oscillates in a narrow range near its highest level since September 16, touched on Friday.

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0764 vs. 7.0749 previous 8 December 2025

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0764 compared to Friday's fix of 7.0749.

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3330 as traders await Fed rate decision 8 December 2025

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3320-1.3325 region, during the Asian session.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $4,200 on Fed rate cut expectations 8 December 2025

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,205 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher as markets widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates at its December meeting on Wednesday.

Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥4347.6B to ¥2833.5B in October 7 December 2025

Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥4347.6B to ¥2833.5B in October

Japan’s GDP declines 0.6% QoQ in Q3 2025 vs -0.5% expected 7 December 2025

The Japanese economy contracted 0.6% over the quarter in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, the final reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Monday. This reading came in weaker the market expectation of -0.5% and the the previous estimate of -0.4%.

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (2.8%) in 3Q 7 December 2025

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (2.8%) in 3Q

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) registered at 4.2% above expectations (4%) in November 7 December 2025

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) registered at 4.2% above expectations (4%) in November

Breaking News

The US Dollar will likely trade narrowly ahead of Friday’s US core PCE data, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, which will likely determine the next major move for the currency.

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