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Dollar rises as virus mutation rattles confidence

December 22, 2020 at 07:30AM

The dollar was firm on Tuesday but was well below peaks hit on Monday’s wild ride higher, as a new coronavirus strain in Britain sent jitters through holiday-thinned currency markets. Sterling and the New Zealand dollar fell half a percent in cautious trade in Asia, the Australian dollar fell 0.4% and the euro was 0.2% softer at $1.2228. At $1.3308, the pound was still nearly two cents clear of a 10-day low made on Monday, when it briefly lost as much as 2.5% after the virus mutation prompted countries to cut travel links with Britain and as Brexit trade talks stalled.

Low liquidity, with many traders logged out for the year, exaggerated the speed and size of the dollar’s gains against other currencies, too, as stop-loss mechanisms dumped investors out of bets against the greenback. The moves unwound over the New York session, as a Bloomberg report hinted at progress in Brexit trade negotiations and as Congress settled on a U.S. stimulus package, encouraging investors to buy back in to the dollar’s downtrend.

The euro is a cent above its Monday low of $1.2130 and firmed 0.3% on the pound to 91.23 pence. Experts said there was no evidence that vaccines would not protect against the new virus variant, but Britain’s chief scientific adviser said that in the meantime tighter restrictions on public life in Britain were likely. Britain also faces food shortages because countries across the globe have locked their borders to the country to try and contain the highly-infectious strain.

A downtrend that has the dollar index on course for a third consecutive quarterly loss and has carried it some 12.5% lower from a March peak has left it both irresistible to momentum funds and overdue for a pause. The index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies was last up 0.2% at 90.259 though beneath its Monday top of 90.978. That is 0.6% above a 2-1/2 year trough of 89.723 it hit last week.

The yuan, which has gained nearly 10% on the dollar since a March low has been steady for about a week now and was a fraction softer at 6.5433 per dollar on Tuesday.

Dollar rises as virus mutation rattles confidence, Reuters, Dec 22

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How the US Dollar Could Trade this Holiday Week

Daily FX Market Roundup December 21, 2020
The second to last week of December kicked off with losses in currencies and equities. By the end of the NY session however, much of the weakness eased leading many investors to wonder if anything could sap the equity rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more 400 points shortly after the NY open but ended the day flat. The dollar started the day strong but gave up part of its gains as well. This is a shortened trading week but a variety of factors could influence how the dollar trades. Congress reached an agreement on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package that would keep millions of Americans from losing their jobless benefits. This is no panacea for the economy but its a breath of fresh air after months of haggling. Unfortunately this deal failed to lift stocks because of broader, more concerning factors.
The most important of which is the mutant coronavirus strain. Over the weekend Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this new strain is 70% more infectious. This prompted the UK government to impose intense restrictions across the country including the city of London. These tier 4 restrictions prohibit residents from leaving their homes except for essential activities and gathering indoors with anyone outside of their household. Non-essential businesses have also been forced to close. Fearing the spread of this virus, countries around world from Germany to France and Canada have raced to ban flights from the UK. So its no surprise to see sterling fall sharply against the US dollar and euro. Another Brexit deadline has been missed as well, raising the risk of a no deal Brexit and further losses for the currency. Brexit and coronavirus uncertainty should benefit the US dollar as investors seek safe haven assets.  
The only question is whether investors are worried about the new coronavirus strain. The media is making a big deal out of it, governments around the world are not taking chances and banning travel but based on the recovery in stocks, investors don’t share these concerns. This is due in part to UK officials saying there’s no reason to think that the vaccine won’t protect against this new fast spreading strain. However the vaccine is new, distribution has just begun and its just far too early to declare the vaccine effective on both strains. At any point in time, renewed uncertainty could drive the greenback higher. 
Last but not least, year end flows will also affect how currencies trade over the next two weeks. 2020 was marked by broad based US dollar weakness and equity market gains. The Dollar Index fell to 2.5 year lows this year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs. If portfolio managers were to rebalance, they would need to sell US stocks which could drive the dollar lower but rebalancing usually happens on a monthly basis and in December, there was very little movement in stocks. 
The US has the busiest economic calendar this week but even so, there are few market moving reports. Revisions to Q3 US GDP and existing home sales are due for release Tuesday followed by personal income, personal spending, new home sales and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. UK GDP revisions will also be released tomorrow with Canadian monthly GDP due on Wednesday
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