Gold Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US

With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?

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China: Inflation pressures build with energy – ING 10 April 2026

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s CPI inflation eased to 1.0% year-on-year after Lunar New Year, while PPI turned positive for the first time since 2022.

Malaysia: Solid GDP and contained inflation – DBS 10 April 2026

DBS Group Research expects Malaysia’s 1Q26 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 5.5% year-on-year, slightly below 6.3% in 4Q25 but still robust. Growth is seen supported by export-oriented electrical and electronics manufacturing, global AI tailwinds, construction and domestic demand.

CNY: Trade normalization and growth risks – TD Securities 10 April 2026

TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports.

KRW: War risk keeps 1,450–1,550 range in focus – ING 10 April 2026

ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that KRW is trading below 1,500, with near-term moves heavily dependent on Middle East developments. The team keeps its 1,450–1,550 trading range, expecting KRW to strengthen rapidly if the war ends.

Singapore: Exports boosted by electronics cycle – DBS 10 April 2026

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports to rise for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, accelerating to 10.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in February.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie rejected at 0.7100, upside risks persist 10 April 2026

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is poised to end Friday’s session flat against the US Dollar (USD), even though an improvement in market mood drove the Greenback toward four-week lows near 98.52, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Fed’s Daly: If inflation stays elevated, we would hold steady 10 April 2026

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, told Reuters in an interview on Friday that if Iran conflict is resolved quickly and Oil prices come back down, a rate cut may not be out of the question.

China: Growth risks skewed to upside in Q1 – Commerzbank 10 April 2026

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao sees upside risks to China’s Q1 2026 GDP versus the bank’s 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front‑loaded public investment. Industrial production is projected to grow 5.5% year‑on‑year, while retail sales slow to 2.5%.

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions: £-56.4K vs previous £-52.7K 10 April 2026

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions: £-56.4K vs previous £-52.7K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 202.2K from previous 213.5K 10 April 2026

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 202.2K from previous 213.5K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $156.3K vs previous $163.2K 10 April 2026

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $156.3K vs previous $163.2K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions dipped from previous $81.5K to $70.8K 10 April 2026

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions dipped from previous $81.5K to $70.8K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €-7.5K vs previous €0.5K 10 April 2026

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions: €-7.5K vs previous €0.5K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-45.7K from previous $-42.5K 10 April 2026

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-45.7K from previous $-42.5K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥-72.9K to ¥-93.7K 10 April 2026

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥-72.9K to ¥-93.7K

Taiwan: Trade boom drives bold growth upgrade – ING 10 April 2026

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, highlights that Taiwan’s March trade data far exceeded expectations, with exports and imports surging and the trade surplus more than doubling year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.

S&P 500 fights for eighth straight gain on Friday afternoon 10 April 2026

The S&P 500 is struggling to hold onto what would mark its eighth consecutive day of gains on Friday.

Gold steady near $4,760 as Iran talks weigh on US Dollar 10 April 2026

Gold (XAU/USD) price remains steady on Friday, poised to finish the week with gains of almost 2% as the US Dollar tumbles amid optimism about Iran-US talks in Pakistan throughout the weekend. Also, a mildly high US inflation report trimmed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish bets for 2026.

Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar weakens as risk flows lift major pairs 10 April 2026

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.60 price region as markets digest the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which confirmed that inflation remains stubbornly elevated, largely driven by energy prices amid war in the Middle East.

MAS: Policy slope hike and inflation focus – DBS 10 April 2026

DBS Group Research expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to slightly increase the slope of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) policy band at its 14 April meeting, reversing last year’s easing.

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Gold Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US

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