The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/12/25/The-Kelly-Criterion.html Gamblers and traders alike should get to know the Kelly criterion intimately

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Ivy Chu

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DailyFX - Market News FX

USD/CAD remains range-bound amid mixed US data and softer Canadian Retail Sales 19 December 2025

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades little changed against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as a rebound in the Greenback keeps USD/CAD confined within its week-old range. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3784, recovering slightly after dipping to an intraday low near 1.3755.

GBP/USD drifts lower as UK data disappoints and Fed cautious tone caps upside 19 December 2025

The GBP/USD pair hovers around familiar levels, yet it has dropped below the 1.3400 mark on Friday after Retail Sales in the UK missed estimates and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers crossed the wires. At the time of writing, the pair trades at around 1.3370, virtually unchanged.

JPY: BoJ hike fails to lift the Yen – Scotiabank 19 December 2025

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 25bp rate hike to a 30-year high of 0.75% failed to support the yen, as cautious guidance from Governor Ueda undercut confidence.

GBP rally above 1.34 quickly fades – Scotiabank 19 December 2025

Pound Sterling’s (GBP) post-BoE push through 1.34 has reversed alongside a broader US Dollar (USD) rebound, leaving GBP/USD back near the middle of its recent range.

EUR surrenders post-ECB gains despite hawkish undertone – Scotiabank 19 December 2025

The Euro (EUR) failed to sustain gains following the European Central Bank (ECB) decision, even as unchanged rates and upgraded growth projections reinforced the view that the easing cycle has ended, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

CAD softens as broad USD strength caps upside – Scotiabank 19 December 2025

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is edging lower in tandem with its peers as the US Dollar (USD) firms into the end of the week, though downside pressure remains contained.

USD ends week firmer – Scotiabank 19 December 2025

The US Dollar (USD) is closing the week on a stronger footing, rising against all major currencies, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) the clear laggard despite the Bank of Japan’s rate hike to 0.75%.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence below forecasts (-14) in December: Actual (-14.6) 19 December 2025

Eurozone Consumer Confidence below forecasts (-14) in December: Actual (-14.6)

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4.2%, above forecasts (4.1%) in December 19 December 2025

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4.2%, above forecasts (4.1%) in December

Catching up with Santa 19 December 2025

S&P 500 and Nasdaq ran into and after CPI, but that three times the buyers ran out of steam – the 6,850s area proved a tough nut to crack. The premarket push higher provided a fine shorting opportunity, and all clients were in the picture why as well.

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 54.6, below expectations (55) in December 19 December 2025

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 54.6, below expectations (55) in December

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in December 19 December 2025

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in December

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.9, below expectations (53.4) in December 19 December 2025

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.9, below expectations (53.4) in December

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.2M) in November: Actual (4.13M) 19 December 2025

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.2M) in November: Actual (4.13M)

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) dipped from previous 1.2% to 0.5% in November 19 December 2025

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) dipped from previous 1.2% to 0.5% in November

Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Will take appropriate action against excessive moves 19 December 2025

Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama spoke at an online meeting with other G7 finance ministers, where he claimed that most of the G7 finance ministers discussed support for Ukraine and that she will take appropriate action against excessive moves from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday.

Gold consolidates below $4,350 amid firm US Dollar 19 December 2025

Gold (XAU/USD) shows limited movement on Friday, as a resilient US Dollar (USD) caps upside momentum. At the time of writing, XAU/USD hovers near $4,321, holding above a daily low of $4,309.

Fed’s Williams: CPI data may have been pushed down a bit 19 December 2025

The President of the New York Federal Reserve (Fed), John Williams, spoke at an interview conducted by the media channel CNBC on Friday.

EUR/GBP edges higher as markets reassess BoE and ECB outlooks 19 December 2025

The Euro (EUR) rebounds against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, as investors reassess the monetary policy outlooks of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) following their interest rate decisions on Thursday.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) extreme area offers a buying opportunity 19 December 2025

In today’s article, we’ll examine the recent performance of VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory. We’ll review how the rally from the Nov 2025 low unfolded as a 5-wave impulse followed by a 7-swing correction (WXY) and discuss our forecast for the next move.

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The Kelly Criterion

About Post Author

Ivy Chu

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