USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Tapering, Rate Hike Pace New Focus for Traders

Stronger-than-expected economic data over the near-term could influence the Fed to taper faster, which would bring it closer to hiking interest rates.

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S&P 500 fights for eighth straight gain on Friday afternoon 10 April 2026

The S&P 500 is struggling to hold onto what would mark its eighth consecutive day of gains on Friday.

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Gold (XAU/USD) price remains steady on Friday, poised to finish the week with gains of almost 2% as the US Dollar tumbles amid optimism about Iran-US talks in Pakistan throughout the weekend. Also, a mildly high US inflation report trimmed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish bets for 2026.

Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar weakens as risk flows lift major pairs 10 April 2026

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.60 price region as markets digest the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which confirmed that inflation remains stubbornly elevated, largely driven by energy prices amid war in the Middle East.

MAS: Policy slope hike and inflation focus – DBS 10 April 2026

DBS Group Research expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to slightly increase the slope of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) policy band at its 14 April meeting, reversing last year’s easing.

USD/JPY hovers below 160 amid intervention fears and Middle-East tensions 10 April 2026

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/JPY trimming most of its losses from earlier in the week as ongoing Oil supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions keep a lid on the Yen’s recovery despite a softer Greenback.

United States Monthly Budget Statement registered at $-164B, below expectations ($-156.75B) in March 10 April 2026

United States Monthly Budget Statement registered at $-164B, below expectations ($-156.75B) in March

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United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count up to 411 from previous 409

Dow Jones Industrial Average gives back recent gains as ceasefire doubts resurface 10 April 2026

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slumps around 300 points on Friday, or roughly 0.6%, retreating from the 48,000 handle after two sessions of ceasefire-fueled gains.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD climbs as Pakistan talks boost risk mood 10 April 2026

The GBP/USD climbed on Friday as risk appetite improved amid the start of US-Iran talks in Pakistan. Meanwhile, US inflation rose as expected in March, but traders seem confident it's a one-time jump as they remain optimistic about Middle East peace negotiations.

GBP/USD climbs as upcoming Pakistan talks boost risk mood 10 April 2026

GBP/USD climbs on Friday as risk appetite improves ahead of the start of US-Iran talks in Pakistan. Meanwhile, US inflation rose as expected in March, but traders seem confident it's a one-time jump as they remain optimistic about Middle East peace negotiations.

USD/CAD trims losses as geopolitics overshadow US CPI and Canadian jobs data 10 April 2026

USD/CAD reverses earlier losses on Friday, as uncertainty surrounding upcoming US-Iran negotiations keeps markets cautious and overshadows US inflation and Canadian employment data, keeping price action volatile.

AUD/USD muted as hot US CPI reinforces Fed’s higher-for-longer stance 10 April 2026

The AUD/USD pair steadies on Friday, posting a slight decline after a four-day strike of gains, trading with a cautious tone amid fresh data releases in the US and geopolitical risks.

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%) 10 April 2026

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Iran demands a ceasefire in Lebanon before peace talks 10 April 2026

Iran's ‌parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said in a post on X on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin.

Gold holds firm as uncertainty lingers around US-Iran negotiations 10 April 2026

Gold (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday but lacks strong upside momentum as markets continue to monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East, while traders digest the latest US inflation data.

Canada: Wage strength tempers BoC cut hopes – TD Securities 10 April 2026

TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that Canadian labour markets showed a modest rebound in March, with 14k jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.

JPY: Neutral rate debate supports gradual gains – Commerzbank 10 April 2026

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year.

Oil: Fragile ceasefire keeps supply risks elevated – Wells Fargo 10 April 2026

Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low.

US UoM Consumer Sentiment falls to 47.6 in April, its lowest level on record 10 April 2026

American consumer confidence deflated in early April, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan released on Friday.

EUR/USD extends gains as ceasefire optimism weighs on USD despite firm CPI 10 April 2026

The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD extending gains for a fifth straight day, as improving risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement offsets the impact of firm US inflation data and keeps the Greenback under pressure.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Tapering, Rate Hike Pace New Focus for Traders

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