USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Aggressive Fed Rate Hike Strategy Will Trigger Resumption of Rally

Investors in U.S. interest rate options are paying for trades that benefit from a much earlier-than-expected monetary tightening by the Fed.

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forecasts FXEF

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 below forecasts (50.3) in January 31 January 2026

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 below forecasts (50.3) in January

China NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, below expectations (50) in January 31 January 2026

China NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, below expectations (50) in January

EUR/USD slides as Warsh Fed pick, hot US PPI supercharge Dollar rally 30 January 2026

EUR/USD drops during the North American session, down by 0.75% amid a session characterized by overall US Dollar strength, sponsored by Trump’s mild-hawkish pick to lead the Federal Reserve and an inflation report that warrants steady rates by the Federal Reserve.

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥-44.8K to ¥-33.9K 30 January 2026

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥-44.8K to ¥-33.9K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $244.8K to $205.4K 30 January 2026

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $244.8K to $205.4K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 97K from previous 78.8K 30 January 2026

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 97K from previous 78.8K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions climbed from previous £-22K to £-16.2K 30 January 2026

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions climbed from previous £-22K to £-16.2K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-81.8K to $-99.8K 30 January 2026

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-81.8K to $-99.8K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $7.1K vs $-14K 30 January 2026

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $7.1K vs $-14K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €111.7K to €132.1K 30 January 2026

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €111.7K to €132.1K

Forecasting the upcoming week: Warsh shares the spotlight with central banks 30 January 2026

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) had a busy week. On Monday, the Fed asked local New York banks about their positions in USD/JPY, fueling speculation that the US may be preparing to work with Japan on the Japanes Yen's (JPY) weakness.

USD/CNY: Potential recapitalization in financial sector – MUFG 30 January 2026

Unconfirmed reports suggest that China may inject RMB 200 billion into large insurers to bolster their capital buffers, alongside an additional RMB 300 billion into major banks. This move aims to support the banking sector amid downward pressure on net interest margins.

Dow Jones Industrial Average dips as Warsh Fed nomination sparks uncertainty 30 January 2026

• Major indexes edged lower as investors digested Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell in May.

INR: RBI expected to pause rate cuts – DBS Bank 30 January 2026

DBS Bank's Group Research discusses the upcoming Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for February 6, 2026.

USD/KRW: Supplementary budget signals upside risk – MUFG 30 January 2026

Korea's industrial production growth rebounded in December, indicating robust export growth. President Lee has signaled a potential supplementary budget to support various sectors, which could pose upside risks to Korea's growth.

Silver collapses over 30% as metals rout triggers historic washout 30 January 2026

Silver (XAG/USD) sinks sharply by more than 30% on Friday as the precious metals segment is being punished by the financial markets, with the grey metal falling more than $38 at the time of writing. XAG/USD trades at $76.91, after reaching a daily high of $118.46.

Gold tanks below $5,000 as Warsh Fed pick, US inflation weigh 30 January 2026

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its losses on Friday, plunges nearly 10% to sink below $4,900 after US President Donald Trump revealed his pick for Fed Chair, while a hot inflation reading in the US justified the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision on Wednesday to keep rates steady.

USD/JPY jumps as US Dollar strengthens on hawkish signals, Warsh nomination 30 January 2026

USD/JPY rebounds around 154.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.90% on the day, supported by a renewed recovery in the US Dollar (USD) after several weeks of weakness. The move comes as markets reassess the monetary policy outlook in the United States (US) and Japan.

TWD: Central bank to hold policy steady – DBS Bank 30 January 2026

DBS Bank's Group Research expects Taiwan's central bank to maintain its policy rate at 2.00% throughout 2026. The report highlights that inflation is projected to remain below the central bank's comfort zone, with subdued price pressures reflecting stable economic conditions.

JPY: Weakness concerns amid intervention – BNY 30 January 2026

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure, with concerns raised by local business leaders about its excessive weakness impacting profitability and wage growth.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Aggressive Fed Rate Hike Strategy Will Trigger Resumption of Rally

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